Researchers at the University at Buffalo have identified the first case of the hyper-transmissible Omicron variant of Covid-19 in Western New York.
Health experts have said since the variant was first identified in South Africa in November that it was a question of when, rather than if, Omicron would arrive here. In just a matter of days, Omicron has become the dominant strain of the virus in New York City, causing what Gov. Kathy Hochul on Wednesday called a "vertical" spike in cases. With Omicron's arrival in New York City, the state as a whole has consistently set single-day caseload records since testing for the virus became widely available near the beginning of the pandemic.
“I believe it's here,” University at Buffalo biochemist Jennifer Surtees said about Omicron in Western New York on Saturday, “and we just need to get the sequence data to back up that suspicion. We are anticipating another wave."
UB researchers said they were not able to pinpoint exactly when the variant arrived in Western New York, but it has likely been circulating in the community for at least a couple weeks. The variant was first announced to the world on Nov. 25 and is believed to be two to three times more transmissible than the already-easily-spread Delta variant that has fueled a case spike in Western New York dating to mid-October.
The genetic sequencing necessary to determine which variant of the virus is present in a DNA sample can take up to two weeks, and researchers at UB said they had completed sequencing on 800 samples from November, all of which were the Delta variant.
“So, it’s possible that Omicron didn’t arrive here until this month,” said Dr. Jennifer Surtees, the lead researcher at UB working to identify viral strains.
The Omicron variant is believed to be more transmissible than Delta for two reasons: Genetic variations make it more easily spread from person to person, and it is much more adept at evading the body's built-up immunity created by a previous Covid-19 infection.
“This variant appears to be even more transmissible than the Delta variant,” Surtees said. “Part of that is due to its ability to replicate quickly, and part of it is its increased ability to evade our immune system, as compared to Delta.”
But researchers have noted that in the early epicenter of the Omicron variant in South Africa, cases there have already begun to ebb after a month. That has led researchers to wonder whether Omicron might cause less severe illness, even though it appears to be more transmissible. Vaccine boosters administered six months after the initial doses have also proven effective, early research shows.
Additional cause for concern lies in the fact that as Omicron arrives here, several Western New York hospitals are already at or near their capacity.
“Everything is already under significant strain from Delta; Omicron just ramps it up further,” she said.
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