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Capturing Our Anxious Times in Google Search - Barron's

Illustration by Elias Stein

“Coronavirus” isn’t the only term that Americans are typing into their Google search boxes these days. “Unemployment” and “recession” are trending, too. In the first 20 days of March, Alphabet’s Google searches for “unemployment” far exceeded their volume for all of July 2010, when the U.S. jobless rate ran at 9.5%. And Google Trends data on “recession” was almost double what it was in any month during the financial crisis’s peak fall 2008-spring 2009 period.

These trending searches anticipated awful economic data. Last week’s U.S. unemployment-insurance claims hit a record high of 3.28 million, up from 220,000 two weeks earlier. Some economists forecast as much as a 30% drop in second-quarter gross domestic product.

Meanwhile, locked-down Americans are changing how they work and play. Searches for “work from home” tripled from December to March, to their highest level ever. Searches for “videoconferencing” also spiked in recent weeks, as more companies told employees to work from home to limit Covid-19’s spread. In fact, as the rest of the stock market sold off, shares of companies such as Zoom Video Communications and Slack Technologies have soared. And Google searches for delivery services also have surged, along with shares of Amazon.com , online pet store Chewy , and other retailers with delivery capabilities.

Of course, lots of companies are losing out in the pandemic. Google searches in the U.S. for “cancel flight” and “cancel cruise” soared in early March to more than 20 times their volume a month earlier, just as the airline stocks plunged 50% or more and cruise lines sank 75% for the year. “Bailout” anyone?

Next Week
Monday 3/30

The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales for February. Economists forecast a 1.3% decline, after a 5.2% jump in January. The housing market had been a source of strength for the economy before the coronavirus outbreak.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas releases its Texas Manufacturing Survey for March. Consensus estimates are for a minus 9.5 reading, a steep drop from February’s 1.2 figure.

Broadcom hosts its annual shareholder meeting.

Tuesday 3/31

Conagra Brands and McCormick report quarterly results.

The Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Survey for March. Expectations are for a 110.8 reading, down from February 130.7 figure. If estimates prove correct, that would be the lowest reading since the late 2016.

The Institute for Supply Management releases its Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for March. Economists forecast a 39 reading, well below the expansionary level of 50 and down from February’s 49 reading.

Wednesday 4/1

Lamb Weston Holdings and PVH report earnings.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Schlumberger hold their annual shareholder meetings.

ADP releases its National Employment Report for March. Consensus estimates are for loss of 360,000 private-sector jobs. That would be the first negative monthly reading since early 2010, when the country was emerging from a recession. (This excludes a blip in September 2017, after hurricanes devastated several U.S. regions.

ISM reports its Manufacturing PMI for March. Expectations are for a 47 reading, down from 50.1 in February.

Thursday 4/2

CarMax , Chewy , and Walgreens Boots Alliance report quarterly results.

The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 28. This past week, the DOL reported3.3 million jobless claims for the week ending on March 21, the highest on record. The previous high was 695,000 claims in October 1982. More recently, jobless claims peaked at 665,000 in March 2009.

Friday 4/3

The BLS releases the jobs report for March. Economists forecast a loss of 150,000 nonfarm jobs, the first decline since September 2010. The unemployment rate is seen rising to 3.9% from 3.5%.

Constellation Brands holds a conference call to discuss earnings.

ISM releases its Non-Manufacturing Index for March. Economists forecast a 45 reading, well below February’s 57.3 figure. The last time this index had a reading below 50 was in December 2009.

Write to Nicholas Jasinski at nicholas.jasinski@barrons.com

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March 28, 2020 at 06:56AM
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Capturing Our Anxious Times in Google Search - Barron's
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